Wildfire risk moves north
By Patrick Dannenburg – August 2025
The risk of wildfires in summer is increasing due to climate change. On average, winters are becoming wetter and milder, while summers are warmer and drier. The area with high wildfire risk is expanding northwards from Southern Europe, and this is expected to affect the Netherlands as well. The risk of wildfires is monitored, among others, by the European Climate Service Copernicus using a Fire Weather Index (FWI). To show how this index has changed over the years in a changing climate, NOS [1] has compiled all FWI data for June, July, and August from the 1960s up to last year.
Wildfire Risk to Date (Source: see [1])
Jelmer Dam, national coordinator for wildfire management at the Netherlands Institute for Public Safety [1] points out that the conditions are already present: “Take the fire in Ede on April 3, 2025, it was contained on a military base. If it had been a campsite, we would have faced a major problem.” The KNMI climate scenarios [2] also indicate an increasing risk of wildfires toward 2100, especially in the high-temperature and drought scenario (Hd).
Future Wildfire Risk (Source: see [2])
Arcturus wildfire model tool
The Arcturus wildfire model maps the potential impacts of these scenarios in detail. It highlights risks not only in and around nature reserves in Drenthe, the Veluwe, and Brabant/Limburg, but also along the coastal areas. Dune fires pose a serious threat and increase the risk—not only on the Wadden Islands, for example, but also near major cities such as Haarlem, The Hague, and Rotterdam. This means that it’s not just holiday parks and picturesque villages in natural areas that are at risk, but also important urban regions.
Insights from the Arcturus Wildfire Model (Example)
Want to learn more about our climate risk models? Check out our climate tools page. In addition to models for wildfire risk, we also offer models for flood and hail risks.